The four halvings so far
Bitcoin has gone through four halvings, each cutting the block subsidy in half. They happen every 210,000 blocks, so the dates depend on how quickly blocks were found, not on the calendar.
| Halving | Approximate date | Block height | Subsidy before | Subsidy after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | 28 November 2012 | 210,000 | 50 | 25 |
| Second | 9 July 2016 | 420,000 | 25 | 12.5 |
| Third | 11 May 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 | 6.25 |
| Fourth | 20 April 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 | 3.125 |
The next is scheduled for block 1,050,000, which at the usual pace would be expected around 2028. The technical process is described in a separate article on how the halving works; this one looks only at what markets were doing around each date.
What the data can and cannot show
Price history is the easy part to find and the hard part to interpret. Four events is a very small sample. Each took place in a different Bitcoin market, with a different number of participants, different products available and a different economy around it. Anything that looks like a pattern across four points can easily be coincidence, and this article does not claim one.
With that caution, here is the context for each event in broad terms, without precise price levels, which vary by exchange and time of day.
2012: a very small market
Bitcoin was still a niche project in late 2012. Trading volumes were small, there were few exchanges, and most people had never heard of it. Prices were low in absolute terms, and in the following year the price rose strongly, reaching a peak in late 2013, then falling sharply in the months after. Because the market was so small, a modest amount of buying could move prices a lot, so it is hard to isolate any effect of the halving itself.
2016: a larger market and new attention
By mid-2016 Bitcoin had a more developed exchange ecosystem. The halving in July of that year was widely discussed in advance. Prices were higher a year later, and the market went on to a major peak in December 2017, followed by a long decline through 2018. In the same period, the first wave of initial coin offerings drew in large numbers of new participants, which is a competing explanation for the rise. Separating the contribution of the halving from that of broad speculative interest is not possible with the data available.
2020: pandemic markets
The May 2020 halving came shortly after a sharp market-wide sell-off in March 2020, when many risk assets fell at the same time as the pandemic spread. Central banks and governments responded with large stimulus and low interest rates, a macro environment that many analysts cite when explaining why risk assets rose over the following year. Bitcoin reached a new peak in late 2021 and then fell through 2022. The halving was one event in a very unusual period, and its separate effect cannot be measured cleanly.
2024: priced in before it arrived
The April 2024 halving followed the launch of US spot ETFs for Bitcoin in January 2024, a major change in how investors could gain exposure. Prices reached a new high in March 2024, before the halving took place, which differs from the earlier cycles. This is one reason commentators note that the event was widely expected and might already have been reflected in the market. Others argue the opposite. Neither view can be proven from the data.
Common observations, and why they are weak
You will often see summaries such as “prices were higher a year after each of the first three halvings”. Even if true of past data, such a statement has problems:
- It is a description of the past, not an explanation. Nothing in the protocol forces a price response.
- Many things changed between events, including adoption, regulation, interest rates and the size of the market.
- Looking for patterns in a handful of events invites reading too much into noise, a trap known in statistics as overfitting.
- When a pattern becomes widely known, traders may act early on it, which changes the pattern.
Longer-term market cycles are a related, broader topic, and the reasons halvings are not a guarantee are covered in their own article.
How to use this history
The sensible takeaway is modest: halvings are well-documented, scheduled changes in the rate of new supply, and they have occurred in markets that were already moving for many other reasons. Looking at the history is useful for context, but it is not a forecast. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, past performance does not predict future results, and people can lose everything they invest. This article is educational and is not financial, tax or legal advice.